Central Florida Real Estate Market Report (September 2026)

What is the state of the Central Florida housing market right now?

Central Florida's housing market in September 2026 is steady but tighter than a year ago. Home prices are roughly flat to modestly higher across most communities, inventory has dropped below year-ago levels, and homes are selling faster than they were in August 2025. The statewide median price for existing single-family homes was about $415,000 in August 2026, up roughly 1.2% from a year earlier, and Florida Realtors reported single-family inventory at about 4.3 months of supply, down from 5.3 months in August 2025.

Mortgage rates are the elephant in the room. The average 30-year fixed rate climbed back to 7.03% by the week ending September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier. That keeps affordability stretched, even as prices hold steady. The market is not one story: single-family homes and condos are behaving very differently, and each county has its own balance of supply and demand.

How are median home prices trending?

The table below shows the most recent verified median prices for the state, the Orlando metro, and each covered county, with reporting periods stated. The Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA) reported an Orlando metro median existing-home price of $400,676 for all property types in August 2026, down from $410,494 in July 2026. ORRA's July 2026 median of $410,494 was up about 1.9% from $402,655 in July 2025, the most recent full year-over-year comparison in ORRA's official housing market narrative.

Sources: Florida Realtors August 2026 statewide report; Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA) housing market narrative and State of the Market, August 2026; Redfin county housing market pages; Orchard real estate market report. Verified county-level medians for Osceola and Lake were not available from current public sources at the time of this report; city-level figures for those counties are in the next table.

Community-by-community breakdown

The city-level picture below includes every community tracked for this report, across Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake, and Polk counties plus the Daytona Beach area. Figures are Redfin median sale prices for all home types; reporting windows differ slightly by city because Redfin updates each city page on its own monthly cycle.

Sources: Redfin city housing market pages, accessed September 2026. City medians are for all home types and can move sharply in smaller markets, so treat single-month figures such as Mount Dora's as point-in-time readings rather than trends.

What does the price data show?

Three patterns stand out in the September 2026 data:

• Prices are broadly flat to slightly up. Most covered communities are within a range of roughly -2% to +4% year over year. The Orlando metro median of $400,676 in August 2026 sits close to where the market was a year ago, and the statewide single-family median is up 1.2%.
• The exceptions skew to smaller or pricier markets. Winter Park ($800,000, +10.3%) and Lake Mary ($560,000, +13.1%) show large year-over-year gains that likely reflect product mix and low sales volume in higher price brackets, not a broad surge. Mount Dora's -9.6% reading is a single-month figure in a small market and should be treated as one data point, not a trend.
• Affordability still anchors the market. With the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% for the week ending September 24, 2026, price stability is being achieved through seller concessions and builder incentives rather than broad appreciation.

What is happening with inventory levels?

Inventory across Central Florida is lower than it was a year ago, a reversal from the gradual buildup of 2024 and early 2025. The Orlando metro had been on a steady path down through 2026: ORRA's months of supply started 2025 at 7.73 months, ended December 2025 at 5.22 months, and sat at roughly 4.2 to 4.4 months in August 2026. A market with 5 to 6 months of supply is generally considered balanced.

• Orlando metro (ORRA): About 12,144 active listings in August 2026, compared with 13,306 in August 2025 and 13,007 in September 2025, a year-over-year decline of roughly 9%.
• Orlando months of supply: Approximately 4.2 to 4.4 months in August 2026, easing to about 4.6 months in September according to a separate Orlando city-level tracker. Both readings sit below the 5.77 months recorded in August 2025.
• Florida statewide single-family: About 4.3 months of supply in August 2026, down 18.9% from 5.3 months in August 2025. Florida Realtors reported end-of-month single-family inventory fell about 13% year over year.
• Condo and townhouse segment: Still heavily supplied at roughly 9.7 months statewide, more than double the single-family level.

The practical result: fewer choices than a year ago in the resale single-family market, but a large selection of condos and a steady stream of new construction in the outer counties.

How many days are homes staying on the market?

Homes are selling faster than they were a year ago. ORRA reported a median 64 days on market for the Orlando metro in August 2026, unchanged from July 2026 but down from 75 days in August 2025. The direction is consistent with the inventory decline: less supply and steady demand are keeping well-priced homes from lingering.

That 64-day median still means buyers have real time to do their homework, which is a meaningful change from 2021 and 2022, when many homes sold within days. The market of 2026 is calmer, but it moved faster in August than in the same month a year earlier.

Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market?

On the headline numbers, the Orlando metro is close to balanced with a mild lean toward sellers: 4.2 to 4.6 months of supply sits below the 5 to 6 month balanced range. But the balance differs sharply by segment:

• Single-family resale in desirable communities: The tightest conditions, especially in neighborhoods like Winter Park, Lake Mary, College Park, and Baldwin Park where well-priced homes can still draw multiple offers.
• New construction: A clearly buyer-friendly submarket. Builders are competing with rate buydowns and closing-cost credits across the region (details below).
• Condos and townhomes: A buyer's market. Statewide condo inventory near 9.7 months of supply gives buyers substantial leverage on price and terms, tempered by the costs and reserve requirements attached to many Florida condo associations.
• Outer counties: Osceola, Lake, and Polk continue to receive heavy new-construction supply, which keeps choices plentiful in those corridors even as the core metro tightens.

How are mortgage rates affecting the local market?

Mortgage rates moved back up through the late summer of 2026. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% for the week ending September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the prior week and 6.30% a year earlier. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported 7.12%, and LendingTree quoted about 7.10% for purchase loans. ORRA's August 2026 market narrative used an average mortgage rate of 6.7% for the month.

Forecasters now expect rates to stay elevated. Fannie Mae (August 2026 forecast) and the Mortgage Bankers Association (September 2026) both project the 30-year fixed rate to average around 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and hold near that level through the first half of 2027, driven by inflation and bond yields. Wells Fargo projects rates near 6.2% by the end of 2027.

What this means locally:

• Affordability pressure persists. A year ago the average rate was about a full point lower. Every point of rate adds roughly $50 to $60 per month per $100,000 borrowed, so buyers are financing less house for the same payment.
• The lock-in effect is real. Homeowners with low fixed rates remain reluctant to sell and trade into a 7% loan, one reason resale inventory is tight.
• Concessions are doing the heavy lifting. Sellers and builders are increasingly offering rate buydowns and closing-cost credits to close the affordability gap, which is why prices can hold steady even with rates near 7%.
• Cash buyers keep a strong presence. Out-of-state and investor activity continues to support the market in higher price brackets where financing matters less.

What is happening with new construction?

New construction remains one of the defining features of the Central Florida market. These are the major developments with verified activity in 2026:

• Sunbridge (Orange and Osceola counties): Tavistock's master-planned community spans roughly 27,000 acres and is permitted for up to 30,000 homes. The existing Del Webb Sunbridge and Weslyn Park neighborhoods total about 2,400 homes. The 2026 wave adds about 1,000 more from Taylor Morrison and Toll Brothers, with Pulte and Tri Pointe Homes also entering. Taylor Morrison's Heron Bay is slated for late 2026 on the Orange County side, ICI Homes began custom homes in Weslyn Park in March 2026 from roughly the $700,000s, and the first commercial district is breaking ground.
• Horizon West (Orange County): 2026 is an infrastructure year. Construction continues on the Flemings Road extension, the New Independence Parkway extension was in its final stages in August 2026, and Ficquette Road widening is beginning. The new Horizon West branch library began receiving books in September 2026 ahead of its opening, and Orange County approved an approximately 85-acre conservation purchase along CR 535.
• Lake Nona (Orange County): The city of Orlando approved a roughly 380-acre Lake Nona development district in 2026, and Tavistock won approval in June 2026 to expand Laureate Park by 426 homesites south of Medical City. The 54-acre Lake Nona West retail center, anchored by a 150,000-square-foot Target, was expected to deliver around spring to summer 2026, and new construction remains available in Laureate Park and Laurel Pointe.
• Wellness Way (Lake County): Lake County commissioners approved Panther Run in September 2026, a 2,241-acre master-planned community planned for 2,600 homes plus about 1 million square feet of employment and retail space, with residential construction expected to begin in 2027. The developer has also committed roughly 50 acres for a proposed high school and 8 acres for public safety facilities.
• EverBe (east Orlando): Actively selling new single-family homes, townhomes, and bungalows from the $400s, with Lennar and Pulte among the active builders.

Builder incentives are widespread and meaningful. Verified current programs include:

• Rate buydowns bringing builder-affiliated 30-year fixed rates to roughly 5.25% to 5.50%, against open-market rates near 6.75% to 7%. An Orlando builder-incentive tracker reported an average buydown floor of about 5.25% for the second quarter of 2026.
• Advertised buydowns as low as 3.99%, including D.R. Horton's marketed 3.99% mortgage buydown, with about 73% of its buyers receiving some form of buydown in its fourth fiscal quarter of 2025. Holiday Builders offers select move-in-ready homes at 3.99% on an FHA 5/1 ARM or 4.99% fixed when financing through its affiliate lender.
• Closing-cost credits averaging about $22,500 on active inventory homes per an Orlando tracker for the second quarter of 2026, with Lennar advertising up to about $25,000 and D.R. Horton up to about $20,000.
• Two-one temporary buydowns, which reduce the rate by 2 percentage points in year one and 1 point in year two.

Incentives change constantly and vary by builder, community, and financing. Buyers should compare the all-in cost of a new home, including CDD fees and HOA dues, against a resale in the same area. See our complete new construction guide for the full due-diligence walkthrough.

What about the rental market?

Rents across the Orlando metro are flat to slightly down, which gives renters flexibility while they search for a home to buy. The Zillow Observed Rent Index put typical rent at about $1,900 per month in September 2026, down roughly 4.5% year over year. RentCafe and TrueNorth reported an average apartment rent near $1,828 in August 2026, down about 0.7% year over year, with a median near $1,942 across all property types.

Apartment vacancy sits around 8% to 10%, down from a peak near 11% in late 2024, and new multifamily construction starts have fallen to their lowest level since 2020. For a buyer still renting, the softer rental market means less pressure to rush into a purchase.

What are the population and migration trends driving the market?

Population growth continues to underpin Central Florida housing demand. The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro had an estimated 2,957,672 residents as of July 1, 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's vintage 2025 estimates released in March 2026. That is an increase of about 37,690 people, or 1.3%, over the prior year, making Orlando the sixth fastest-growing among the nation's 30 largest metros and above Florida's statewide growth rate of 0.8%. The prior year, the metro added roughly 76,000 residents.

• Domestic migration: Inbound domestic moves are heavily concentrated in Central Florida; the Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and Lakeland metros together receive the bulk of Florida's inbound domestic movers.
• Miami to Orlando: A notable 2024-2025 trend is Miami-area residents and businesses relocating to the Orlando metro for lower housing costs and less climate risk.
• National rankings: Florida cities dominate the 2025 U-Haul Growth Index, with Orlando among the top inbound destinations, alongside significant international migration.

Growth has slowed from the peak of the early 2020s, but the region continues to add tens of thousands of new households each year, which is a key reason prices have held steady even with elevated mortgage rates.

What about condos and townhomes?

The condo and townhome segment is the softest part of the market. Statewide, the median condo and townhouse price was just under $298,000 in August 2026, up nearly 3% year over year, but inventory sits near 9.7 months of supply, roughly double the single-family level. Drivers include Florida's structural integrity reserve and milestone inspection requirements for older buildings, rising HOA and insurance costs, and continued buyer preference for single-family homes and townhomes.

Relocation buyers considering a condo should review the association's financials, reserve fund, and recent inspection or milestone reports before making an offer, and should treat the higher supply as both leverage and a signal to be thorough about due diligence.

What does this mean if you are relocating to Central Florida?

For someone planning a move to Greater Orlando, the September 2026 data points to a practical, manageable market:

• Prices are stable, not surging. You are unlikely to face the bidding wars of 2021-2022, and you have more room to negotiate on condos and new construction.
• Rates are the main affordability variable. Plan your monthly payment around a rate near 7%, and ask sellers and builders about buydowns and credits, which are common.
• Inventory is tighter than a year ago but varies by area. Expect the most competition in popular Seminole and Orange County resale neighborhoods, and the most choices in Osceola, Lake, and Polk new-construction corridors.
• Rents are easing. If you rent first, you have time to learn the geography before buying, which is a sound strategy in a metro where communities differ sharply by commute, taxes, and character.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Central Florida Market

What is the median home price in Orlando right now?

ORRA reported an Orlando metro median existing-home price of $400,676 for all property types in August 2026, with a single-family median of $436,456. For comparison, the statewide single-family median was about $415,000 in August 2026.

Are Orlando home prices rising or falling?

Broadly flat. The Orlando metro began 2025 with prices rising, and ORRA's July 2026 median was up about 1.9% from July 2025, while the August 2026 median pulled back to $400,676. County medians range from roughly -1% to flat, with a few communities such as Winter Park and Lake Mary showing double-digit gains driven in part by product mix.

Is it a good time to buy a home in Central Florida?

For most buyers, yes, with eyes open. Prices are stable, inventory is better than in 2021-2022, and builders are offering substantial incentives. The counterweight is a 30-year fixed rate near 7%, so affordability comes from financing terms and concessions more than from falling prices.

Where are mortgage rates headed?

The average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.03% for the week ending September 24, 2026. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project an average near 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026, holding through the first half of 2027, with meaningful declines below 6% not expected in the near term.

How much inventory is available in Orlando?

About 12,144 active listings in the Orlando metro in August 2026, or roughly 4.2 to 4.4 months of supply, down from 5.77 months in August 2025. Statewide single-family inventory was about 4.3 months, while the condo segment carried roughly 9.7 months.

Last updated: September 25, 2026. Published by Moving to Orlando Guide with Tyler Gibson. Primary sources: Florida Realtors (August 2026 statewide report, released September 2026), Orlando Regional Realtor Association housing market narrative and State of the Market (August 2026), Redfin county and city housing market pages (accessed September 2026), Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week ending September 24, 2026), Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae August 2026 Housing Forecast, U.S. Census Bureau vintage 2025 population estimates (via FRED and the Orlando Economic Partnership), Zillow Observed Rent Index, RentCafe, Homes.com, GrowthSpotter, and the Orlando Sentinel. Figures are point-in-time and subject to revision; verify current conditions with a licensed real estate professional. Nothing here is investment advice.